Chances for Big Quake Highest in so Cal, Experts Say

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The chances of a major earthquake occurring in the next 30 years in California is a "near certainty" seismologists said Monday, and such an event is more likely to happen in Southern California than anywhere else in the Golden State.

That prediction came during the unveiling of a new earthquake probability model by U.S. Geological Survey scientists at USC on Monday. According to the model, the chances of a 6.7-magnitude quake -- the same size as the Northridge temblor of 1994 -- hitting California in the next 30 years is more than 99 percent. The odds of such a quake, or an even larger one, striking Southern California in the same time frame is 97 percent, versus 93 percent for Northern California.

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Chances for Big Quake Highest in so Cal, Experts Say

When the model is applied to the regions' two major metropolitan centers, the Southl...

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